Will your north Texas home gain value over the next 12 months?

Nobody can know for sure, of course, but should recent housing trends continue, there’s concrete cause for optimism.

The housing economy has suffered since 2007, knocking home values down nearly 20% nationwide. And while some areas have fared better as compared to others but, in general, home values are down.

Mortgage rates are down, too, and that’s good news for buyers. The combination of low rates and low prices has led home affordability to an all-time high. As you’ll hear in this 4-minute interview with NBC’s The Today Show, carrying a mortgage costs 25% less per month as compared to just 3 years ago.

Some other notes from the interview include :

• There are more buyers out looking for homes today, which leads to more sales
• The housing market is expected to get gradually better, month-by-month, in 2012
• Foreclosures will continue to be a big part of the housing market

With housing supplies shrinking, buyers may find their best “deals” today — before the Spring Buying Season begins in February.

However, we can’t forget that housing markets are local — not national. Each town and neighborhood has its own market drivers and prices where you live may have already started to climb.

For accurate, up-to-date data on the housing market, talk with a North Point  real estate agent. We have the later data.

Federal Open Market Committee meeting

The Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed Minutes are a detailed meeting recap; the companion piece to the more brief, more well-known press release.

As a comparison, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting contained 60 paragraphs and 7,027 words. The post-meeting press release was just 5 paragraphs and 382 words.

December’s Fed Minutes shows Fed members with a positive, cautious, take on the economy.

Recent data suggests that the U.S. economy is expanding, the Fed said, but “strains” in global financial markets pose “significant risks” to the downside. This tell us that the Fed believes its economy-stimulating programs are working, but that officials remained concerned by events in the Eurozone.

The U.S. economy could be impacted by fallout.

Other meeting consensus included : 

• On growth : The economy is expanding, despite slowing in “global economic growth”
• On housing : Data suggests the “depressed” market “could be improving”
• On inflation : Prices are stable, and remain within tolerance levels

The Fed’s analysis was of little surprise to Wall Street, and going forward, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wants to keep it that way. The Fed Minutes contained a passage regarding market communication, and how the Fed will be more pro-active about it in the future.

With the release of its minutes, in a section called “Market Policy Communications”, the Federal Reserve showed its plans to release 4 times annually its economic forecasts, and plans for the Fed Funds Rate. This signals in a shift in Federal Reserve transparency.

The Federal Reserve will begin including the forecast in its economic projections beginning after its next policy meeting, January 24-25, 2012.

Mortgage rates were little changed after the release of the Fed Minutes.

Home Affordability Impacted by Retail Sales

Consumer spending continues to rise nationwide, fueled by jobs growth and a rosier outlook for the U.S. economy.

Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers in Texas, it may also lead to higher mortgage rates later this week.

Thursday morning, the Census Bureau will release its U.S. Retail Sales data for December. The report is expected to show an 18th consecutive monthly increase, with analysts projecting sales volume higher by 0.4 percent from November.

This would be double the increase from last month, which saw a 0.2 percent increase in Retail Sales.

The Retail Sales report tallies receipts collected by retail and food-service stores nationwide. When the sum of these receipts rise, it puts pressure on mortgage rates to do the same. The connection is straight-forward.

Retail Sales are the largest part of “consumer spending” and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy — up to 70 percent, by some estimates.

As the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.

Remember: today’s ultra-low mortgage rates have been partially fueled by weak economies — both domestic and abroad — going back 4 years. Stock markets have sold off as economies have faltered worldwide, leading investors to seek refuge in the relative safety of U.S.-backed mortgage bond market. The new-found demand for mortgage-backed bonds has helped drop mortgage rates to levels never seen in history.

When economic recovery is apparent, therefore, we should expect a mortgage rate reversal, and should expect for it to happen quickly. Stock markets should rise; bond markets should fall. Mortgage rates will climb. Rate shoppers will lose.

Last week’s strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy. If Thursday Retail Sales data reveals similar strength, the risk in “floating” your mortgage rate may be too great. The safer play is to lock your rate today.

The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.

Mortgages Take Another Hit

If you’ve been shopping for a home or for mortgage, take action now!

Within days, lenders are expected to start collecting Payroll Tax Extension fees from mortgage applicants — say what?

Let me repeat that. Starting soon, nearly all home buyers and refinancing households nationwide will pay higher mortgage loan fees. Congress has made it law.

As if the housing industry has not had a rough enough time, home buyers will pay higher fees — to make-up for the tax loss created by “Tax Relief”.  Again, confusing — what does one have to do with the other?

Here’s why:

13 months ago, as part of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, Congress enacted a one-year cut to FICA payroll taxes.

FICA stands for Federal Insurance Contributions Act. Taxes collected under FICA fund such programs as Social Security and Medicare.

The stimulus plan temporarily lowered tax rates for salaried workers from 6.2% to 4.2%; and for self-employed persons from 12.4% to 10.4%. Effective January 1, 2012, “regular” tax rates were to return.

That is, until late-December 2011. In one of its last moves of the year, Congress passed a temporary, two-month extension to the payroll tax cut, extending it through February 29, 2012. The expected cost to the U.S. Treasury is $33 billion.

To recoup those costs, Congress has turned to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA, aka Healthy, Wealthy and Wise (not!).

They have been ordered to collect new fees on each new mortgage they back, and forward said fees to U.S. Treasury directly. There’s no “workaround” allowed or forgiveness applied — each new loan is subject to the payment.

The rules are listed on page 17 of the law’s final draft, in a section unambiguously titled “Title IV — Mortgage Fees and Premiums”.

And here we go — according to the law :

• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must collect an average fee of no less than 10 basis points (0.1%) per new loan
• The FHA must raise its monthly mortgage insurance premiums 10 basis points for all new loans

The expected cost to consumers is no less than $10 monthly per $100,000 borrowed. Some analysts, however, expect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to collect more than is minimally required.

This could add an additional $30-50 to your monthly mortgage payment per $100,000 borrowed.

So, if you’ve been shopping for a home or for mortgage, take action now! Within days, lenders are expected to start collecting Payroll Tax Extension fees from mortgage applicants — a move that will cost you money.

Lock today to avoid the big fees. Save yourself money.

Seriously, don’t let this sneak up on you. If you’re on the fence about buying or refinancing, take action now! If you want to know which lender has done a good job for our clients, call me now!
Norma Wall, Broker – 214-212-6770

Start your home search here:

Spills and splatters dot their ceilings; splattered food stuffs line their walls.

To clean your microwave, you can use the harsh chemicals on sale at supermarkets and hardware stores, or you can apply an all-natural approach which yields the same results, with only slightly more preparation time.

The extra time may be worth it, too, considering that the chemicals of an over-the-counter cleaner may seep into your foods over time.

To keep your microwave fresh and clean, using organic materials only, here’s what to do :

1. Gather a microwave safe bowl; 1 1/4 cups of water; a lemon; baking soda; white vinegar; and cleaning cloths.
2. Slice the lemon and place the slices into your bowl. Add the water.
3. Heat the bowl in the microwave for 7 minutes. Leave the microwave door closed for an additional 5 minutes.
4. Remove the bowl (CAUTION : Bowl will be hot).
5. Unplug your microwave from the wall for safety.
6. Remove the microwave’s glass cooking surface and wheel system. Hand wash and set aside to dry.
7. Dip a clean cloth in the lemon water mixture.
8. Wipe down the microwave’s exterior and interior surfaces, remoistening the cloth as required.
9. Moisten a clean cloth with vinegar. Wipe down the microwave door’s interior surface.
10. Replace glass and wheel system, and plug the microwave back in to the wall.

If you find lingering stains in your microwave, mix baking soda with water to form a thick paste. Dip a corner of your cleaning cloth into the paste and apply it to the stain directly, gently rubbing in a circular motion until the stain is gone.

Microwaves should be cleaned at least once weekly for optimal performance.

Is an ARM right for you?

Normally we think of adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) as good options when interest rates are high — which is certainly not the case today with interest rates bouncing around at historic lows.

For buyers and refinancing households, adjustable-rate mortgages are a relative bargain as compared to fixed-ones.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of more than 125 banks nationwide, mortgage applicants electing for a conventional ARM over a conventional fixed-rate mortgage will save 105 basis points on their next mortgage rate.

“Conventional” loans are loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Today’s average, conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is 3.91% plus points and closing costs. The average rate for a comparable 5-year ARM is 2.86%, plus points and closing costs.

In other words, for every $100,000 borrowed, a conventional 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage will save you $58.15 per month, or $698 per year.

That’s a 12 percent savings just for choosing an ARM.

12 percent is a big figure that adds up over 5 years — especially for households that plan to sell within those first 60 months anyway. There is little sense in paying the mortgage rate premium for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage when a 5-year ARM is perfectly suitable.

For the reason why adjustable-rate mortgages continue are so much lower than their fixed-rate counterparts, look no further than the U.S. economy. ARMs reflect Wall Street’s short-term economic expectations; whereas fixed-rate mortgages reflect medium- to long-term expectations.

In the short-term, analysts expect the U.S. economy to grow slowly, with low levels of inflation. This supports the U.S. dollar, the currency in which mortgage bonds are denominated. When the dollar is strong, demand for mortgage bonds tends to increase.

This supports lower interest rates.

Conversely, over the longer-term, inflation is expected to return, which devalues the dollar and everything paid in it (e.g.; mortgage-backed bonds). This is why inflation is linked to higher mortgage rates. When inflation is present in the economy, mortgage bonds lose value, driving mortgage rates up.

Adjustable-rate mortgages aren’t perfect for everyone, but in the right situation, they can be a big money-saver and a helpful tool for stretching a household budget. Given today’s rates, the money-saving potential is larger than usual.

Before you choose an ARM, discuss your options with your loan officer.

Start your Home Search Here.

Housing and Mortgage 2012 Predictions

As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012.

Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.

Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.

Who’s right and who’s wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals “experts” with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It’s tough to know who to believe.

For example, here are some “on-the-record” predictions for 2012 :

• Home prices will rise (says Freddie Mac)
• Home prices will fall (says CBS News)
• Mortgage rates will rise (says American Banker)  
• Mortgage rates will fall (says the LA Times)

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a “prediction” from fact at times.

When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we’re inclined to believe what we read and hear.

This is human nature.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future — whether it’s housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else — are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.

Predictions are guesses about what might come next — nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.

All we can know for certain about today’s market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions nationwide.

At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates “with points” price in the 3s.

What 2012 has in store we just can’t know.

New Construction Inventory

New home inventory is approaching bull market territory.

The number of new homes sold rose 2 percent in November. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 315,000 newly-built homes last month according to the Census Bureau.

November’s New Home Sales data marks the 4th straight month of rising sales volume, lifting the housing-market metric to a 7-month high, and adding to the housing market’s recent show of strength.

Last week, we learned that Existing Home Sales also climbed in November.

The big story in the New Home Sales report, though, is the remaining new home supply nationwide.

With just 158,000 homes “on the market” and the pace of home sales hastening, the complete, national inventory of “new homes” would now be sold in just 6.0 months, a 0.2-month improvement from October. This is the quickest home sales pace in nearly 6 years for the new construction market.

It’s even faster than in April 2010 — the buyer-deadline month of last year’s federal home buyer tax credit.

Home builders expect the trend to continue, too. Buyer foot traffic is on the rise and builders have a strong outlook for the next 6 months.

It’s an unsettling series of developments for today’s home buyers. As home supplies drop and builders gain confidence, the ability of an buyer to negotiate for price reduction and/or upgrades shrinks.

If you’re a home buyer in search of new construction, therefore, consider that the best new construction “deals” of the next 12 months may be the ones you find today.

Start your Search for a new construction here. 

Plano TX, in the heart of Collin County, is ranked #1 among America’s Safest Cities by Forbes Magazine. We always knew that Plano was a great place to live and raise a family – now Forbes confirms it.

Plano TX #1 of safest cities in US

Looking for safe cities in which to live? A recent study may help you.

Titled “America’s Safest Cities“, Forbes Magazine compiled data from more than 70 cities with populations of 250,000 or more, and ranked them by violent crime rate as reported by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

A “violent crime” is one that can be categorized as murder, robbery, and assault, among others. Then, for each metropolis, local traffic-fatality rates were added to the area’s violent crime rate, and averaged into the data.

Forbes presents the 10 safest large cities in America as :

1. Plano, Texas
2. Henderson, Nevada
3. Honolulu, Hawaii
4. Santa Ana, California
5. Lincoln, Nebraska
6. San Jose, California
7. Mesa. Arizona
8. Colorado Springs, Colorado
9. Aurora, Colorado
10. New York, New York

Forbes is quick to note that “gridlocked” traffic patterns help keep cities safe; which may explain why cities like Honolulu and New York City made the Top 10. When cars are forced to move more slowly, the report states, traffic-related fatalities tend to plummet.

Don’t rush to make a home-buying decision based on Forbes data alone, however. Like everything else in real estate, data is local and city-wide statistics are too broad to be helpful to an everyday buyer.

For accurate, real-time, local crime data, call me to connect with a real estate professional to help you evaluate Plano, and other North Central Texas cities
Norma Wall, Broker 214-212-6770 – start your Home Search here.

Plano is home to 261,000 people and has long been recognized as a family-friendly community. High-ranking schools, excellent parks and recreation areas, outstanding employment and city planning, give Plano bragging rights as one of the premier North Texas cities. For more information and lifestyle profile, review our Focus on Plano.

Home sales UP, inventory DOWN

Another strong showing for the housing sector: home resales hit 10-month high in November.

Existing Home Sales nationally rose 4 percent in November over October 2011.*

North Texas followed the national trend:**

• Sales up 4.5% November vs October
• Inventory down 24.1% November vs October
• There is a 5.9 month inventory supply

Who’s buying?

t’s interesting to look at the November buyers – here’s a break-down by buyer type:

• First-time buyers : 35%
• Repeat buyers : 46%
• Investor buyers : 19%

Home buyers and sellers should take note of November’s numbers because — behind the headlines — there’s a series of statistics that foretell higher home prices ahead.

An “existing home” is a home that has been previously occupied and cannot be categorized as new construction.

First, the total number of homes for sale nationwide dipped to 2.58 million, an 18% reduction from November 2010 and represents the fewest number of homes for sale since February 2007.

At the current sales pace, the complete home resale inventory would be sold in 7.0 months.

And, second, the real estate trade group reports that 33% of all homes under contract “failed” for some reason last month.

Contract failures can occur because of mortgage denials in underwriting; home inspection issues; and homes appraising for less than their respective purchase prices.

In other words, despite a reduction in the number of homes for sale, and a rash of failed contracts, Existing Home Sales volume is still on the rise.

Given high demand for home resales and shrinking home supplies, we should expect that home prices will rise through December 2011 and into early-2012, at least. Recent Housing Starts data supports this notion.

Thankfully, mortgage rates remain low. Low mortgage rates help keep homes affordable.

Ready to buy a new home? We have the resources to help you find the right home, the right loan. Norma Wall, Broker – 214-212-6770 info@come2dallas.com Search for property

*According to the National Association of REALTORS® seasonally-adjusted, annualized
**Data from North Texas Real Estate Information Systems the Multiple Listing Service of North Central Texas.