Home Affordability Impacted by Retail Sales Data
Home Affordability Impacted by Retail Sales
Consumer spending continues to rise nationwide, fueled by jobs growth and a rosier outlook for the U.S. economy.
Unfortunately for mortgage rate shoppers in Texas, it may also lead to higher mortgage rates later this week.
Thursday morning, the Census Bureau will release its U.S. Retail Sales data for December. The report is expected to show an 18th consecutive monthly increase, with analysts projecting sales volume higher by 0.4 percent from November.
This would be double the increase from last month, which saw a 0.2 percent increase in Retail Sales.
The Retail Sales report tallies receipts collected by retail and food-service stores nationwide. When the sum of these receipts rise, it puts pressure on mortgage rates to do the same. The connection is straight-forward.
Retail Sales are the largest part of “consumer spending” and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy — up to 70 percent, by some estimates.
As the economy goes, so go mortgage rates.
Remember: today’s ultra-low mortgage rates have been partially fueled by weak economies — both domestic and abroad — going back 4 years. Stock markets have sold off as economies have faltered worldwide, leading investors to seek refuge in the relative safety of U.S.-backed mortgage bond market. The new-found demand for mortgage-backed bonds has helped drop mortgage rates to levels never seen in history.
When economic recovery is apparent, therefore, we should expect a mortgage rate reversal, and should expect for it to happen quickly. Stock markets should rise; bond markets should fall. Mortgage rates will climb. Rate shoppers will lose.
Last week’s strong jobs report sparked hope for the U.S. economy. If Thursday Retail Sales data reveals similar strength, the risk in “floating” your mortgage rate may be too great. The safer play is to lock your rate today.
The Retail Sales report will be released at 8:30 AM ET.
PAY ATTENTION : New Loan Fees Expected Within Days
Mortgages Take Another Hit
If you’ve been shopping for a home or for mortgage, take action now!
Within days, lenders are expected to start collecting Payroll Tax Extension fees from mortgage applicants — say what?
Let me repeat that. Starting soon, nearly all home buyers and refinancing households nationwide will pay higher mortgage loan fees. Congress has made it law.
As if the housing industry has not had a rough enough time, home buyers will pay higher fees — to make-up for the tax loss created by “Tax Relief”. Again, confusing — what does one have to do with the other?
Here’s why:
13 months ago, as part of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010, Congress enacted a one-year cut to FICA payroll taxes.
FICA stands for Federal Insurance Contributions Act. Taxes collected under FICA fund such programs as Social Security and Medicare.
The stimulus plan temporarily lowered tax rates for salaried workers from 6.2% to 4.2%; and for self-employed persons from 12.4% to 10.4%. Effective January 1, 2012, “regular” tax rates were to return.
That is, until late-December 2011. In one of its last moves of the year, Congress passed a temporary, two-month extension to the payroll tax cut, extending it through February 29, 2012. The expected cost to the U.S. Treasury is $33 billion.
To recoup those costs, Congress has turned to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA, aka Healthy, Wealthy and Wise (not!).
They have been ordered to collect new fees on each new mortgage they back, and forward said fees to U.S. Treasury directly. There’s no “workaround” allowed or forgiveness applied — each new loan is subject to the payment.
The rules are listed on page 17 of the law’s final draft, in a section unambiguously titled “Title IV — Mortgage Fees and Premiums”.
And here we go — according to the law :
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must collect an average fee of no less than 10 basis points (0.1%) per new loan
- The FHA must raise its monthly mortgage insurance premiums 10 basis points for all new loans
The expected cost to consumers is no less than $10 monthly per $100,000 borrowed. Some analysts, however, expect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to collect more than is minimally required.
This could add an additional $30-50 to your monthly mortgage payment per $100,000 borrowed.
So, if you’ve been shopping for a home or for mortgage, take action now! Within days, lenders are expected to start collecting Payroll Tax Extension fees from mortgage applicants — a move that will cost you money.
Lock today to avoid the big fees. Save yourself money.
Seriously, don’t let this sneak up on you. If you’re on the fence about buying or refinancing, take action now! If you want to know which lender has done a good job for our clients, call me now!
Norma Wall, Broker – 214-212-6770
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Housing And Mortgage : Experts Make 2012 Predictions
Housing and Mortgage 2012 Predictions
As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012.
Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time.
Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal.
Who’s right and who’s wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals “experts” with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It’s tough to know who to believe.
For example, here are some “on-the-record” predictions for 2012 :
- Home prices will rise (says Freddie Mac)
- Home prices will fall (says CBS News)
- Mortgage rates will rise (says American Banker)
- Mortgage rates will fall (says the LA Times)
The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a “prediction” from fact at times.
When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we’re inclined to believe what we read and hear.
This is human nature.
However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future — whether it’s housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else — are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion.
Predictions are guesses about what might come next — nothing more.
For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did.
All we can know for certain about today’s market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions nationwide.
At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates “with points” price in the 3s.
What 2012 has in store we just can’t know.
Jobs Report Represents A Big Risk To Low Mortgage Rates
Have you been floating a mortgage rate? It may be time to lock.
Today at 8:30 AM ET, the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its November Non-Farm Payrolls report. Better known as “the jobs report”, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls figures provide sector-by-sector employment data, and tally the size of the current U.S. workforce size.
From these two elements, the national Unemployment Rate is derived.
If the number of jobs created exceeds the 125,000 expected, mortgage rates will rise on the expectation for a stronger U.S. economy in 2012.
Since topping out at 10.2% in October 2009, the Unemployment Rate has dropped to 9.0%. More than 2.3 million net new jobs have been made in the last 24 months.
Wall Street expect to see 125,000 more jobs added in November.
Depending on how closely the actual Non-Farm Payrolls data meets Wall Street expectations, rate shoppers could find that the mortgage market landscape has shifted beneath them. The jobs report is a mortgage-market catalyst and when its reported value differs from Wall Street expectations, the impact on mortgage rates can be palpable — especially in a recovering economy.
The connection between the jobs market and the mortgage market is straight-forward — as the jobs market goes, so goes the economy.
- When more people work, consumer spending increases
- When consumer spending rises, businesses expand and invest
- When businesses expand and invest, more people are put to work
Furthermore, employees and employers both pay taxes to governments. With more tax revenue, governments embark upon new projects which (1) require the hiring of additional workers, and (2) require the purchase and/or repair of additional equipment and supplies.
Employment can be a self-reinforcing cycle for the economy and that’s why Friday’s jobs report will be so closely watched. If the number of jobs created exceeds the 125,000 expected, mortgage rates will rise on the expectation for a stronger U.S. economy in 2012.
Conversely, if the jobs figures fall short, mortgage rates may fall.
Mortgage rates continue to hover near all-time lows according to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is sub-4.000 percent nationwide, with an accompanying fee of 0.7 discount points. 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.
If you’re under contract for a home or looking to refinance, watch those interest rates.
Get your rate lock in today.
Foreclosure Filings Climb; 4 States Account for Half
Foreclosed homes are a hot market — and supplies are ramping up.
Nationwide October’s foreclosure filings rose 7 percent to 231,000 filings, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.
A “foreclosure filing” is any one of the following foreclosure-related events : A default notice on a home; a scheduled auction for a home; or, a bank repossession of a home. Because of this definition, a single home can account for up to 3 filings — one from each category.
Because of this, we may glean more relevant insight into the foreclosure market by separating RealtyTrac’s report into “event types”
- Default Notices : Up 10% from September 2011; Down 31% from October 2010.
- Scheduled Auctions : Up 8% from September 2011; Down 38% from October 2010.
- Bank Repossessions : Up 4% from September 2011; Down 27% from October 2010.
These breakdowns suggest that, although improved as compared to last year, the foreclosure market is growing. At least, it’s growing in some parts of the country. We can’t forget that — like everything real estate — foreclosures are a local phenomenon.
In October, just 4 states accounted for more than half of the country’s foreclosure filings. Those four states — California, Florida, Michigan and Illinois — represent just 26% of the U.S. population.
Even on a per household basis, the figures remain disproportionate :
- Top 10 Foreclosure States : 1 per 341 households, on average
- Bottom 10 Foreclosure States : 1 per 7,434 households, on average
- Nationwide foreclosure rate: 1 per 563 households
- Texas is well below the national average, at 1 per 988 households
Looking for a foreclosure?
As a home buyer, foreclosures are worth watching. They account for 18% of home resales nationwide and, in some markets, can be bought at steep discounts versus a comparable “non-distressed” home. That is part of their appeal, in fact.
Here in Collin County the resale values on foreclosures are not as deeply discounted. Value of distressed properties are generally established by the repaired value, less the cost of repairs and a reasonable percentage for the stigma of distressed property, with consideration for current market conditions.
But just because foreclosed properties can be a “deal”, it doesn’t mean you should rush to buy one. Buying a foreclosed home from a bank is different from buying a non-foreclosed home from a “person”. The contracts and negotiation process are different, and foreclosed homes are sometimes sold as-is.
“As-is” means “this home may have defects”.
Therefore, if you plan to buy a foreclosed home, talk with a real estate professional first. You can learn a lot about the housing market online, but with respect to writing an offer on a property, you’ll want an experienced agent on your side.
